If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
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If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
Position Sizing™ and your personal psychology are the two most important aspects of trading and they are probably the two most neglected topics. Chapter 14 of the second edition of Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, is all about helping you understand the importance of position sizing.
Before we discuss this topic, let me give you some important background information. I tend to think of trading systems by the distribution of R-multiples that they generate. And the average R (or mean R) of the system's R-multiple distribution is the expectancy of the system. It tells you what to expect from the average trade.
So let me give you a simple trading system, one that is probably much simpler than any you'd trade. Twenty percent of the trades are 10R winners and the rest of the trades are losers - 70% are 1R losers and the remaining 10% are 5R losers. Is this a good system? Well, if you want a lot of winners, then it certainly isn't - it only has 20% winners. But if you look at the average R for the system it's 0.8R. That means on the average, you'd make 0.8R per trade over many trades. Thus, when it's phrased in terms of expectancy, it's a winning system.
Let's say that you made 80 trades with this system in a year. On the average you'd end up making 64R - which is excellent. If you allowed R to represent 1% of your equity (which is one way to do position sizing), then you'd be up about 64% at the end of the year.
I frequently play a marble game with this R-multiple distribution to teach people about trading. The R-multiple distribution is represented by marbles in a bag. The marbles are draw out one at a time and replaced. The audience is given 100,000 to play with and they all get the same trades.
So let's say we do 30 trades, and they come out as shown in the table:
R-Multiples Draw In A Game -1R -5R -1R -1R -1R -1R -1R -1R +10R -5R -1R -1R -1R -1R +10R +10R -1R -1R -1R -1R -1R -1R -1R -5R -1R -1R +10R +10R -1R +10R +8R -14R +30R
If you look at the bottom row, you see the total R-multiple distribution after each ten trades. After the first 10 we were up +8R, we then had 12 losers in a row and were down 14R after the next 10 trades. And finally we had a good run on the last 10 trades, with four winners, getting 30R for the ten trades. Over the 30 trades we were up 24R. And if you divide 24R by 20 trades is gives us a sample expectancy of 0.8R. Thus, our sample expectancy was exactly the same as the expectancy of the marble bag. That doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
Now let's say that you are playing the game and your only job is to decide how much to risk on each trade or how to position size the game. How much money do you think you'd make or lose? Well, in a typical game like this, 1/3 of the audience will go bankrupt (i.e., they won't survive the first five losers or the streak of 12 losses in a row); another 1/3 of the audience will lose money; and the last third will typically have made a huge amount of money - sometimes over a million dollars. And in an audience of say 100 people, except for the 33 or so who are at zero, I'll probably have 67 different equity levels.
That shows you the power of position sizing. Everyone in the audience got the same trades, those shown in the table. Thus, the only variable working was how much they bet or their position sizing. And through that one variable we had final equities than ranged from zero to over a million dollars. That's how important position sizing is. And by the way, I've played this game hundreds of times, getting similar results each time.
Position sizing is that important and I'd suggest that you take a look at chapter 14 of my book because many people have told me that it turned their trading around, making them winners instead of losers. Next week, I'll tell you a lot more about position sizing - how to do it and what its purpose is.
Dr.Van K Tharp
Before I get myself into trouble, let me point out that there is no "Holy Grail" trading system in the world - not yet anyway. If there is, please let me know. I don't mind paying a thousand bucks for it. However, a trading system close to the "Holy Grail" is indeed possible and I'll show you how to develop it.
What moves Forex? Conventional thinking would imply economic fundamentals or factors such as the strength of a country's economy, which contributes to currency flows. Therefore, one would assume that everyone else would buy the US dollar against the British pound. Why not? The US economy is the largest in the world while that of Great Britain has fallen to fifth, behind the US, Japan, Germany and China.
The theory of "the bigger the economy is, the more attractive its currency will be" may be true but in reality, the sterling has advanced more against the dollar. Why is this so?
et's dissect the market by taking a look at the players in the currency market. They are the financial institutions, commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds, hedge funds, small funds, international businesses, private investors, retail traders and not forgetting, individuals. Each plays a part in determining the movement of a currency. We can divide them into two categories - "commercial" and "non-commercial".
The "commercials" engage in business activities requiring the use of currencies, whereas the "non-commercials" are into the Forex market for speculative purpose. Therefore the philosophies of the "commercials" and "non-commercials" are very much different - when the "commercials" buy, the "non-commercials" sell; and when the "commercials" sell, the "non-commercials" buy. It is this different point-of-view from two different types of traders, market makers or investors that moves the Forex market.
We have gone through the easy part of identifying the movers of the market. The question now is how to use this piece of information to trade Forex successfully and how to use the above information to develop a "Holy Grail" (almost) trading system.
Earlier, we have determined who the movers of the currency market are. The "commercials" are involved in a nature of business that requires Forex transactions. Examples would be commercial banks, insurance firms and international companies. On the other hand, the "non-commercials" are in the market solely for speculative purpose. Examples would be hedge funds, small funds, private investors, retail traders and individuals.
Best times to trade
Even though the Forex market opens 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, there are specific times in a day where the volume of transactions are high. These are the London session (3AM EST to noon EST), New York session (8AM EST to 5PM EST) and Tokyo session (7PM EST to 4AM EST), in the order of market volume size. Therefore the most profitable trades, in terms of price movement, are usually found in these times. It is advisable for traders to trade during these times.
Best currencies to trade
Every nation in the world has its own currency - the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Russian ruble, South African rand, Mexican peso, Thai baht, Indian rupee, and so on. However the most traded currencies, with the highest volume and liquidity, are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound and the Swiss franc, with euro (EUR/USD) being the most traded currency pair.
Tools of the trade
When it comes to trading Forex, there's only two methods that are utilized. The first is fundamental analysis and the other is technical analysis. Many traders argue that either one is better than the other. I prefer to use both. I will determine my entry and exit points based on technical analysis with the support of economic data or fundamental analysis. This will minimize the risk involved in my trades because the market doesn't lie. Technical analysis will show you why price is behaving in a certain manner and fundamental analysis will prove that you are right.
Best market to trade
Because the strength of a country's economy, which contributes to currency flows, doesn't just change on any external events, currencies tend to trend well. It takes some time for a material change in an economy's strength and therefore the direction of its currency. Due to this reason alone, Forex is a very trader-friendly market, compared to equities, futures, options, etc.
How to best trade the Forex market?
This is the million-dollar question. Remember our "commercial" and "non-commercial" friends? These guys will battle to see who will win ultimately. Here's how it works:
"Commercials" consisting of commercial banks, insurance firms and large companies are loaded with deep pockets and nearly unlimited funds when put together. When the price of a currency declines, the "commercials" will load their positions - they will buy because price is "cheap". When demand exceeds supply, price advances and the "commercials" will unload their positions - they will sell at a higher price for a profit.
Who will they sell to? It's the "non-commercials"! But before we come to a conclusion who the obvious losers in this game are, let me tell you that not all "commercials" will profit from the above example and not all "non-commercials" will lose. It all depends on when the entry or exit is made. Confused?
Let me explain. When price declines and the "commercials" buy, they are practically buying into a falling price (this is possible because of the large funds at their disposal) in the hope that price will eventually advance and they will profit by selling at a higher price. However, there's no guarantee that 100,000 lots bought will each be sold at a higher price. It all depends on market forces - nobody can dictate or control the movement of a currency.
As for the "non-commercials", when price advances, they are practically buying into a rising price in the hope that price will advance even more for them to profit from it. As is the case above, market forces will determine whether this will hold true for the "non-commercials".
What does it all mean?
If you analyze the above, you will notice one common theme. In order to profit from the market, timing is essential - "buy low and sell high". Easier said than done! Every trader knows this. So how can one time his or her entry or exit?
Tricks of the trade
Here's how you should trade the currency market. You should develop your "Holy Grail" (almost) trading system based on the following. It worked for me, which is why it should work for you too.
Here you have it. I have provided the five (5) essential steps for you to develop an almost "Holy Grail" trading system for yourself. All you need to do now is to try each specific method outlined above and see which works best for you. Paper trade using historical data - practice until you get it right, keeping in mind the five (5) steps above.
K Ronald
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
If you are relatively new to this blog, you might want to read these first:
